Forex Technical Analysis: US Dollar Range Bound While Gold Shows Weakness

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The US Dollar seems to be stuck in the range for some time now after rejection at channel top
Above the support level at 10429, the dollar prices are in consolidation mode depicting the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. Alternatively, a movement downward exposes the 50% level at 10409. Instead, it shows a break above the near-term resistance level at 10454 depicting the 23.6% Fibonacci

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Despite the uptrend shown by the yellow metal, the Gold Chart Setup predicts a softness
On the technical chart, the yellow metal prices are finding resistance at 1318.69. This is speculated from the descending Triangle chart formation and the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. If the metal breaks above this barrier, it will achieve the 38.2% level at 1349.81. The descending Triangle reasons out in favor of its weakness and continues to look bearish. Nevertheless, near-term support is at 1277.00, as depicted from the Triangle bottom.

Forex Outlook: Investors Keen On US Fed Speech

With little or no events to drive the New Zealand Dollar, there was more profit-booking for the New Zealand Dollar. The kiwi made a poor performance last week and moved down 0.72% versus the greenback. The yen moved up as the Asian stocks performed well. Adding to the positive sentiment of yen was the holding back the statement about any stimulus by the BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda.

Looking bleak, the European trading hours were also very much uneventful with nothing much on the Economic Calendar. A decrease of 3.3% in the Switzerland’s Unemployment Rate is expected, making it the least in four months. Moreover, a slowdown in the output growth is depicted by the UK Industrial Production data. Much to the relief of the investors, these events will have little impact, since the central banks’ monetary policy outlook predicts less movement in Swiss Franc and British Pound price.

However, investors are keen on the scheduled comments from from Minneapolis and Philadelphia Fed Presidents Narayana Kocherlakota and Charles Plosser later in the day. Investors will also keep a watch on the speech by FOMC member and Chicago Fed President Charlies Evans. The market will fervently watch the tone of the speech about setting guide speculation about continuing of the Fed’s effort to narrow the QE asset purchases. A slightly hawkish inclination might likely uplift the US Dollar.

Asian Session

GMT	CCY	EVENT	ACT	EXP	PREV
22:00	NZD	NZIER Business Opinion Survey (1Q)	52	-	53
23:50	JPY	Current Account Total (¥) (FEB)	612.7B	618.1B	-1589.0B
23:50	JPY	Adjusted Current Account Total (¥) (FEB)	-41.4.7B	24.7B	-588.3B
23:50	JPY	Trade Balance - BOP Basis (¥) (FEB)	-533.4B	-593.6B	-2345.4B
1:30	AUD	NAB Business Confidence (MAR)	4	-	7
1:30	AUD	NAB Business Conditions (MAR)	1	-	0
2:50	JPY	Bank of Japan Monetary Base Target (¥)	270T	270T	270T
4:30	JPY	Bankruptcies (YoY) (MAR)	-12.37%	-	-14.62%
5:00	JPY	Eco Watchers Survey: Current (MAR)		-	53
5:00	JPY	Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (MAR)		39.5	40

European Session

GMT	CCY	EVENT	EXP	PREV	IMPACT
5:45	CHF	Unemployment Rate (MAR)	3.3%	3.5%	Medium
5:45	CHF	Unemployment Rate s.a. (MAR)	3.2%	3.2%	Medium
6:30	EUR	Bank of France Business Sentiment (MAR)	-	98	Low
6:45	EUR	French Central Gov't Balance (€) (FEB)	-	-12.7B	Low
6:45	EUR	French Trade Balance (€) (FEB)	-5000M	-5732M	Low
7:15	CHF	Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (FEB)	-	0.3%	Low
8:30	GBP	Industrial Production (MoM) (FEB)	0.3%	0.1%	Medium
8:30	GBP	Industrial Production (YoY) (FEB)	2.2%	2.9%	Medium
8:30	GBP	Manufacturing Production (MoM) (FEB)	0.3%	0.4%	Medium
8:30	GBP	Manufacturing Production (YoY) (FEB)	3.1%	3.3%	Medium

Critical Levels

CCY	Supp 3	Supp 2	Supp 1	Pivot Point	Res 1	Res 2	Res 3
EUR/USD	1.3618	1.3673	1.3707	1.3728	1.3762	1.3783	1.3838
GBP/USD	1.6483	1.6541	1.6575	1.6599	1.6633	1.6657	1.6715

Asian Stock Market Down – Forex Up

Asian stock markets had slight records to look at this morning as equities stay to effort on the Russia Ukraine scenario and also reply to Wall Street. Asian markets are trading on a negative message today on the back of additional than expected decay in US manufacturing data in yesterday’s trade, thereby representative a slowdown in the world’s major economy.

The Hang Seng was low by 0.10% while the Nikkei 225 was low by 0.35% and the Chinese market was top by 0.33%. Asian stocks fell, through the regional benchmark key sliding after its main gain in a month. US markets stimulated frequently lower led moderately by a fall in US manufacturing movement.

Let European stock markets clipped last week’s gains to close lower on Monday, off the back of weak Chinese statistics and intensifying tension in Ukraine. 

The US Dollar Index traded down by 0.2 % yesterday on the back of optimistic market feelings in initial part of the trade which ran to fall in request for the little yielding currency. The astonishment performer this morning is the Australian dollar which is trading at 0.9138 after moving a 2014 earlier in trading services.

Remaining in the Pacific county the Japanese yen relieved against together the US dollar and the euro to trade at 102.30 and 141.53 as traders look carefully the effects of the sale tax rise hitting on the 1st of the month and the response by the Bank of Japan.

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Recently US Dollar Broadly Down - Market Expands 2014

The US dollar was broadly down against the other main currencies on 14th Feb-Friday 2014, as market sentiment upgraded after the issue of upbeat financial growth reports from the euro region. Let’s dollar bordered lower against the euro zone, with EUR/USD up 0.08% to 1.3691.

The single currency originate support after initial data presented that the euro zone's gross domestic product expanded by 0.3% in the 4th-quarter, above outlooks for a 0.2% expansion, after a 0.1% rise in the 3rd quarter.The pound remained supported after the BoE elevated its U.K. financial progress forecast for 2014 to 3.4% to 2.8% on Wednesday.

The bank also currently  efficient its forward management on bank rates, saying it will not increase rates until the replacement capacity in the U.K. economy takes been completely absorbed, which it never see happening until 2015.

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