Forex Outlook: Euro Slides Down Against The Pound

The euro fell down against the British Pound and traded at 0.8231 with a 0.04% loss for the day. On April 23, the pair traded between 0.8202-0.8246 and consolidated at 0.8233. The IFO Business Climate Index published by the Ifo Institute for Economic Research is expected to release its reading on Germany, the largest economy in the euro zone, today at 08:00 GMT. The index is predicted to give a lower reading of 110.4 in April compared to 110.7 in March.

The euro will gather more positive sentiment, if the reading falls on higher than expected level.
In another part of the world, the Confederation of British Industry is expected to release the results from its monthly CBI distributive survey at 10:00 GMT today. 

The index is predicted to give a higher reading of 17 in April compared to 13th in March 2014. Reflecting the short-term trends in UK retail and wholesale sectors, this indicator will be an important aspect of the formulation of the economic policy by the Bank of England and the government.

If the reading turns out to be more than expected, the pound will gain more appeal.

Technical view

EUR/GBP manages to breach the first resistance level at 0.8252, it maybe continue up to test 0.8271. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably effort to advance to 0.8296.

Forex Outlook: Investors Keen On US Fed Speech

With little or no events to drive the New Zealand Dollar, there was more profit-booking for the New Zealand Dollar. The kiwi made a poor performance last week and moved down 0.72% versus the greenback. The yen moved up as the Asian stocks performed well. Adding to the positive sentiment of yen was the holding back the statement about any stimulus by the BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda.

Looking bleak, the European trading hours were also very much uneventful with nothing much on the Economic Calendar. A decrease of 3.3% in the Switzerland’s Unemployment Rate is expected, making it the least in four months. Moreover, a slowdown in the output growth is depicted by the UK Industrial Production data. Much to the relief of the investors, these events will have little impact, since the central banks’ monetary policy outlook predicts less movement in Swiss Franc and British Pound price.

However, investors are keen on the scheduled comments from from Minneapolis and Philadelphia Fed Presidents Narayana Kocherlakota and Charles Plosser later in the day. Investors will also keep a watch on the speech by FOMC member and Chicago Fed President Charlies Evans. The market will fervently watch the tone of the speech about setting guide speculation about continuing of the Fed’s effort to narrow the QE asset purchases. A slightly hawkish inclination might likely uplift the US Dollar.

Asian Session

GMT	CCY	EVENT	ACT	EXP	PREV
22:00	NZD	NZIER Business Opinion Survey (1Q)	52	-	53
23:50	JPY	Current Account Total (¥) (FEB)	612.7B	618.1B	-1589.0B
23:50	JPY	Adjusted Current Account Total (¥) (FEB)	-41.4.7B	24.7B	-588.3B
23:50	JPY	Trade Balance - BOP Basis (¥) (FEB)	-533.4B	-593.6B	-2345.4B
1:30	AUD	NAB Business Confidence (MAR)	4	-	7
1:30	AUD	NAB Business Conditions (MAR)	1	-	0
2:50	JPY	Bank of Japan Monetary Base Target (¥)	270T	270T	270T
4:30	JPY	Bankruptcies (YoY) (MAR)	-12.37%	-	-14.62%
5:00	JPY	Eco Watchers Survey: Current (MAR)		-	53
5:00	JPY	Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (MAR)		39.5	40

European Session

GMT	CCY	EVENT	EXP	PREV	IMPACT
5:45	CHF	Unemployment Rate (MAR)	3.3%	3.5%	Medium
5:45	CHF	Unemployment Rate s.a. (MAR)	3.2%	3.2%	Medium
6:30	EUR	Bank of France Business Sentiment (MAR)	-	98	Low
6:45	EUR	French Central Gov't Balance (€) (FEB)	-	-12.7B	Low
6:45	EUR	French Trade Balance (€) (FEB)	-5000M	-5732M	Low
7:15	CHF	Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (FEB)	-	0.3%	Low
8:30	GBP	Industrial Production (MoM) (FEB)	0.3%	0.1%	Medium
8:30	GBP	Industrial Production (YoY) (FEB)	2.2%	2.9%	Medium
8:30	GBP	Manufacturing Production (MoM) (FEB)	0.3%	0.4%	Medium
8:30	GBP	Manufacturing Production (YoY) (FEB)	3.1%	3.3%	Medium

Critical Levels

CCY	Supp 3	Supp 2	Supp 1	Pivot Point	Res 1	Res 2	Res 3
EUR/USD	1.3618	1.3673	1.3707	1.3728	1.3762	1.3783	1.3838
GBP/USD	1.6483	1.6541	1.6575	1.6599	1.6633	1.6657	1.6715